New research highlights a significant challenge for the Irish Government: a surge in the older population necessitating a major increase in funding for long-term care, including nursing home beds and home help services.
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) forecasts that the demand for both long-term residential care beds and home support services for older individuals will need to expand by at least 60% by the year 2040 to adequately address future needs.
The study projects that the need for long-stay beds will climb from 29,579 in 2022 to between 47,590 and 53,270 by 2040, representing a substantial increase of 61% to 80%.
Similarly, the requirement for short-stay beds could potentially rise from 3,745 in 2022 to as high as 7,265, marking a potential increase of 94%.
Furthermore, the number of home help hours needed annually is expected to grow significantly, from 28.7 million hours to a potential 54.9 million hours by 2040, an increase of up to 91%.
According to the ESRI, this sharp increase in demand is primarily driven by the consistent expansion of Ireland’s older population.
Projections indicate that by 2040, one in every five individuals in Ireland will be over the age of 65.
Notably, the population aged 85 and older, who typically require a significant proportion of nursing home beds and home support, is expected to more than double its current size.
ESRI senior research officer Brendan Walsh emphasized, “Ireland has experienced tremendous improvements in life expectancy in recent decades, driven mainly by reductions in mortality at older ages.”
“Therefore, plans and policies are needed for long-term care to ensure the health system is in a position to meet the increasing care needs of the older population. Our findings provide policymakers with an important evidence base to help develop these plans and policies.”
The research suggests that promoting healthier aging could potentially reduce the future need for long-term beds, while expanding home support services could also prove beneficial.
However, the sheer volume of individuals aged 65 and over who will require such care may offset these potential reductions.
The research also emphasizes the need for regional projections to determine where services will be most needed.
Health minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill stated that the Government’s program includes commitments to building more public nursing home beds, establishing a homecare scheme to enable people to remain in their homes longer, and increasing the number of home care hours available. She added:
“This is shown by the €4m allocated in Budget 2025 to staff and open 615 new community beds.
“The Department of Health and the HSE are also working on a new Long-Term Residential Care Additional Capacity Plan, to be published in 2025.”
Minister of state Kieran O’Donnell, responsible for housing and older people, described the ESRI research as “invaluable” for capacity planning for residential care and home support.
“It is evident that significant action will be required by Government in order to ensure that the appropriate care services are available for our older population and to deliver on programme for government, Sláintecare, and Project Ireland 2040 commitments,” said Mr. O’Donnell.
“I am absolutely committed to ensuring that this capacity planning is advanced in 2025.”
